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​RUSS  J. ALAN

February 2, 2016

Ted Cruz will be president – if history repeats itself 

On Monday night, February 1, 2016, Ted Cruz won the Iowa Republican Caucus. He will also be the next president of the United States, if history repeats itself.

If the incumbent president is serving his second term, the candidate of the opposing party who wins the Iowa Caucus becomes president, history shows.

In 2000, incumbent President Bill Clinton was in his second term when George W. Bush won the Iowa Republican Caucus. Bush won the Republican nomination, and later won the White House.

In 2008, incumbent President George W. Bush was serving his second term when Barack Hussein Obama won the Iowa Democrat Caucus. Obama won the Democrat nomination, and went on to become President.

Since 1976, Bush and Obama were the only two candidates who won the Iowa Caucus for their parties that ever became the President of the United States. Alternatively, had either of the incumbent presidents, Bill Clinton or President Bush not been serving their second terms, neither Candidate Bush nor Obama, respectively, would have won their general elections for the President of the United States, history shows.

If President Obama were serving his first term instead of his second, history shows that Ted Cruz, winner of the 2016 Iowa Republican Caucus, WOULD NOT win the Republican nomination, nor the White House.

THE HISTORY:

1976: Iowa Caucus second place winner becomes president
  • Incumbent President Gerald Ford won the Iowa Republican Caucus but didn't become president.
  • Jimmy Carter came in second place in the Iowa democrat caucus, but went on to become president.

1980: Iowa Caucus second place winner becomes president
  • Incumbent President Jimmy Carter won the Iowa democrat caucus but was not re-elected.
  • Ronald Reagan came in second place in the Iowa Republican Caucus and went on to become president.

1984: Incumbent president is re-elected

  • Walter Mondale won the Iowa democrat caucus
  • Incumbent President Ronald Reagan was re-elected.

1988: Iowa Caucus third place winners go on to win their party's nominations.
  • Bob Dole and Dick Gephardt were the first place winners in the Iowa Caucuses
  • The third place winners, George H.W. Bush and Michael Dukakis went on to win their party's nominations.
  • George H.W. Bush became president.

1992: Iowa Caucus forth place winner became president
  • Incumbent George W. Bush was unopposed.
  • Tom Harkin won the Iowa democrat caucus and
  • Bill Clinton was the fourth place winner, and went on to become president.

1996: Incumbent president was re-elected.
  • Incumbent President Bill Clinton was unopposed.
  • Bob Dole won the Iowa Republican Caucus.
  • President Clinton was re-elected.

2000: Incumbent president was serving second term. Iowa Caucus winner became president.
  • President Bill Clinton was serving his second term.
  • George W. Bush and Al Gore were the Iowa Caucus winners.
  • George W. Bush was the first candidate since 1976 to win the Iowa Caucus and go on to be president.

2004: Incumbent president was re-elected.
  • Incumbent President George W. Bush and John Kerry were the Iowa Caucus winners.
  • President George W. Bush was re-elected.

2008: Incumbent president was serving second term. Iowa Caucus winner became president.
  • President George W. Bush was serving his second term.
  • Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama were the Iowa Caucus winners.

Conclusion:
Barack Obama was the second of the only two candidates since 1976 to win the Iowa Caucus and go on to be president.
Barack Obama is serving his second term, and history shows that if the incumbent President is serving his second term, the opposing party winner of the Iowa Caucus for his party, in this case Ted Cruz, will go on to win the general election for the President of the United States, history shows.


© Russ J. Alan