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​RUSS  J. ALAN

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 4, 2012

2012 Iowa Caucuses: History tells us who the next president will be

With the votes all counted, Governor Mitt Romney was announced the winner of the Iowa Republican Caucus, with 24.6% of the vote, winning  by only eight votes, over Rick Santorum who came in second place with 24.5% of the Iowa Republican vote.

Governor Rick Perry came in fifth place in the Iowa Republican Caucus and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann came in--sixth? She realized it was all over and gave a wonderful goodbye speech.  Governor Perry went back to Texas to re-assess, to pray, and God told him to stay in the race and "go forth" to South Carolina.  

Sources did not disclose whether or not God told Governor Perry that he would be the first candidate ever in history to come in fifth place in the Iowa Caucuses and still get his party's nomination for President of the United States.

Although some believed that the "Era of [Newt Gingrich]" was over, Former Speaker Newt Gingrich came in fourth place.  Isn't it possible for Newt to win the Republican nomination?  Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas, in 1992, won 4th place in the Iowa democrat caucus with only 3% of the Iowa democrat vote (that's right 3 (three) (III) percent), went on to win the democrat party nomination and eventually won the general election for the President of the United States. Newt can't do it with 13.3% of the Iowa Republican vote?

Texas Congressman Ron Paul came in 3rd place.  Ron Paul can't become president?  Vice President George H. W. Bush, in 1988, came in 3rd place with only 19% of the vote, went on to win the Republican Party nomination and eventually won the general election for the President of the United States.  Why can't Ron Paul be successful after winning 21.4% of the Iowa Republican vote?  

Rick Santorum came in 2nd place with 24.5% of the Iowa Republican vote.  He could also be the next president.  In 1976, Jimmy Carter came in second place in the Iowa democrat caucus with 28% of the Iowa democrat vote, went on to win the democrat party nomination, and won the general election for the President of the United States.  In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 30% of the Iowa Republican vote, came in second place in the Iowa Republican Caucus, went on to win the Republican Party nomination and eventually became the greatest president of the 20th Century.  

No Newt, Roosevelt wasn't "the greatest president of the 20th century".

So it's all decided.  It's all over folks.  Stick a fork in it.  It's done.  Surely, Governor Mitt Romney, first place winner in the 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus will be the NEXT PRESIDENT OF THESE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!  No?  and don't call you Shirley?  Well, consider the following facts: 

  • In 1992, President George H. W. Bush came in 1st place and--what?...he was the incumbent president? Oh...
  • OK OK in 1996 Presideny Bill Clinton won first place in the Iowa Cauc...wait he was the incumbent president too.
  • Wait wait wait... George W. Bush--no darn it --he was also an incumbent-- but NOT THE FIRST TIME!
  • GEORGE W. BUSH won first place in 2000 and went on to get the nomination and became president!
  • So did BARACK OBAMA IN 2008.  

Here's the thing:  When George W. Bush and Barack Obama were candidates in 2000 and 2008, the incumbent presidents were not running, since both incumbent presidents were serving their second terms.  With the exception of Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, history since 1980 shows that if an incumbent president is running, he's gonna be re-elected.  Had President Bill Clinton and President Bush respectively, not been serving their second terms, Candidate Bush and Barack Obama probably wouldn't have have become presidents, history shows.

In 1996, incumbent President Bill Clinton won the Iowa democrat caucus with 98% of the Iowa democrat vote, ahead of Undecided, who came in second place with 1%.  Ralph Nader came in third place, also with 1% -- or was that Pat Paulsen?

Obama is also the incumbent president.  He ran in the 2012 Iowa democrat caucus, unopposed, and like incumbent Presideint Bill Clinton, he also won 98% of the Iowa democrat vote, coming in first place ahead of Undecided, who came in second place with 2% of the Iowa democrat vote.

Who do you think will be the next President of these "fifty-seven" United States of America?