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​RUSS  J. ALAN

TUESDAY, JANUARY 3, 2012

2012 Iowa Republican Caucus winner won't become president, history shows

History since 1976 has shown us that if the candidate is not the incumbent president, unless the incumbent President is serving his second term, if the said candidate wins the Iowa Caucus for his party, he USUALLY does not win his party's nomination but NEVER becomes President of the United States.

Since 1976, only two candidates who won the Iowa Caucus for their parties ever became the President of the United States. They were George W. Bush in 2000, and Barack Obama in 2008; however, had either of the incumbent presidents, Bill Clinton or President Bush, respectively, not been serving their second terms, neither Candidate Bush nor Barack Obama would have won their general elections for the President of the United States, history shows.

1976:  Iowa Caucus second place winner becomes president
  • Incumbent President Gerald Ford won the Iowa Republican Caucus but didn't become president.  
  • Jimmy Carter came in second place in the Iowa democrat caucus, but went on to become president. 

1980:  Iowa Caucus second place winner becomes president
  • Incumbent President Jimmy Carter won the Iowa democrat caucus but was not re-elected. 
  • Ronald Reagan came in second place in the Iowa Republican Caucus and went on to become president. 

1984:  Incumbent president is re-elected
  • Walter Mondale won the Iowa democrat caucus 
  • incumbent President Ronald Reagan was re-elected.  

1988:  Iowa Caucus third place winners go on to win their party's nominations.
  • Bob Dole and Dick Gephardt were the first place winners in the Iowa Caucuses 
  • the third place winners, George H.W. Bush and Michael Dukakis went on to win their party's nominations.  
  • George H.W. Bush became president. 

1992:  Iowa Caucus forth place winner became president
  • Incumbent George W. Bush was serving his second term. 
  • Tom Harkin won the Iowa democrat caucus and  
  • Bill Clinton was the fourth place winner, and went on to become president. 

1996:  Incumbent president was re-elected.
  • Incumbent President Bill Clinton was unopposed.  
  • Bob Dole won the Iowa Republican Caucus.  
  • President Clinton was re-elected. 

2000:  Incumbent president was serving second term.  Iowa Caucus winner became president.
  • President Bill Clinton was serving his second term.  
  • George W. Bush and Al Gore were the Iowa Caucus winners.  
  • George W.Bush was the first candidate since 1976 to win the Iowa Caucus and go on to be president. 

2004:  Incumbent president was re-elected.
  • Incumbent President George W. Bush and John Kerry were the Iowa Caucus winners.  
  • President George W. Bush was re-elected.

2008:  Incumbent president was serving second term.  Iowa Caucus winner became president. 
  • President George W. Bush was serving his second term.  
  • Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama were the Iowa Caucus winners.  
  • Barack Obama was the second of the only two candidates since 1976 to win the Iowa Caucus and go on to be president.

Barack Obama is not serving his second term YET, and history shows that unless the incumbent President is serving his second term, the opposing party winner of the Iowa Caucus for his party will not go on to win the general election for the President of the United States.

The candidate who wins the Iowa Republican Caucus probably will not win the Republican Party nomination, whether it be Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Santorum, John Huntsman or whomever else you can think of, and will not will not become the President of the United States, history shows.

Conclusion:

Got a favorite in the Republican Primary that you'd like to see in the White House? Pray that she or he loses the Iowa Republican Caucus. Then she or he will have a shot at winning the general election for the President of the United States — history shows.


© RUSS J. ALAN